How Accurate Is Zillow in North Dakota? A Local Look at Bismarck & Mandan Zestimates

By Rebecca Sabot, Real Estate Agent
© 2025 Rebecca Sabot. All rights reserved.

If you’ve ever typed your address into Zillow and felt a tiny adrenaline rush (or mild panic) from the number that popped up… welcome to the club.

In Bismarck and Mandan, I see Zillow’s Zestimate used for everything: pricing decisions, refinance conversations, divorce negotiations, estate planning, and the occasional “See honey, I told you the hot tub adds value.”

So—how accurate is Zillow in North Dakota?

The honest answer: Zillow can be useful, but it’s not the value—especially in a market like ours.

Zillow’s Zestimate is a computerized home value estimate. It can be reasonably close in some situations and noticeably off in others. The key is understanding when it tends to track reality… and when it’s basically guessing in a nicer outfit.

What Zillow says about Zestimate accuracy

Zillow publishes national accuracy stats and makes an important distinction:

• On-market homes (actively listed): nationwide median error rate is 1.83%

• Off-market homes (not listed): nationwide median error rate is 7.01% Zillow

That “off-market” number matters because most people look up their home on Zillow before they list it. And in North Dakota—where data inputs, specials, updates, and property styles vary a lot—off-market estimates can drift.

Zillow also notes accuracy depends on data availability in a given area. If the underlying data is thin or outdated, the estimate will be too. Zillow

The part people forget: Zillow’s goal is profit (and the Zestimate helps with that)

Zillow is not a charity for homeowners. It’s a business, and a major part of its business model is selling advertising and generating leads for real estate agents and other housing-related services.

Here’s what that means in plain English:

Zillow makes money when consumers raise their hand

When someone clicks “Contact Agent,” “Request a Tour,” or similar buttons, Zillow can route that consumer to paid advertisers (like Zillow Premier Agent partners). Zillow openly markets that Premier Agents receive “motivated buyer leads.” Zillow

Your contact info can be shared with marketing/advertising partners

Zillow’s privacy policy says it coordinates and shares personal data (including contact info and identifiers) with advertising and marketing partners for marketing and related purposes. Zillow Group

So yes—Zillow is designed to keep you engaged (Zestimates are great for that), and to turn some percentage of that engagement into leads and ad revenue.

Important nuance: people often say “Zillow sells your info.” What’s verifiably true is: Zillow uses consumer inquiries as lead-generation and shares data with partners per its policy, which is how the machine gets paid. Zillow

Why Zillow can be off in Bismarck & Mandan

Our market is hyper-local. Two houses can be the same size and style and still sell far apart because of specials, neighborhood, lot type, updates, and buyer demand in that price point.

Here are the biggest reasons I see Zestimates miss locally:

1) Specials aren’t consistently reflected the way buyers feel them

In Bismarck and Mandan, specials can affect monthly payment and buyer demand in a very real way. Automated estimates don’t reliably price in:

• high specials vs. low specials

• remaining balance and payoff timing

• neighborhood norms and buyer resistance

2) “Same model” doesn’t mean “same value”

Builders reuse floorplans, but value depends on:

• lot premiums (corner, cul-de-sac, walkout potential, views)

• elevation/finish package

• basement finish quality (or whether it’s finished at all)

• garage upgrades (heat, drains, epoxy, size)

3) Acreage + outbuildings = algorithm confusion

Acreage properties outside city limits or near Mandan often include variables Zillow struggles with:

• shop size/quality/use

• well/septic vs rural water

• access, maintenance, and site differences

• functional value (hobby farm, horses, storage, business use)

4) Condition and upgrades are hard to “see” from data

Zillow may not know you:

• remodeled the kitchen

• finished the basement

• replaced the roof or mechanicals

• upgraded windows/doors

• redid the exterior

If it’s not in the data feed, it basically didn’t happen—at least to the algorithm.

5) Low-turnover neighborhoods weaken comp data

Some neighborhoods in Bismarck and Mandan don’t have frequent sales. Fewer recent comparable sales (“comps”) means wider estimate swings.

When Zillow is most useful in North Dakota

Zillow tends to be more helpful when the home is:

• in a neighborhood with lots of recent sales

• a standard single-family home (not overly unique)

• similar to nearby homes in age, size, and style

• currently listed with accurate details

In those cases, the Zestimate can be a decent starting point for a market value conversation.

When Zillow is least reliable (aka “don’t bet your list price on it”)

Be extra cautious if the home is:

• custom or one-of-a-kind

• on acreage or includes major outbuildings

• recently updated (but not reflected online)

• new construction where builder incentives and supply shift quickly

• in an area with few recent sales

Also: Zillow can lag behind fast changes in demand, rates, and inventory. Algorithms don’t attend showings or read buyer feedback.

Zillow vs. a local Comparative Market Analysis (CMA)

Here’s the difference:

Zillow Zestimate

• fast estimate based on available data

• useful for a rough ballpark

• may miss specials, condition, and local nuances

• designed to keep consumers engaged (and convert some into leads)

CMA (Comparative Market Analysis)

• based on relevant sold comps + current competition

• adjusts for condition, finishes, lot, location, and market behavior

• explains why your home fits a range (not just a number)

• supports a pricing strategy buyers will respond to

I’m Rebecca Sabot, Real Estate Agent, and I’m a full-time realtor—my job is to translate “internet estimate” into “what buyers will actually pay” with local evidence and a plan.

How to use Zillow the smart way (without getting emotionally attached)

1. Treat it like a range, not a price tag

2. Check the facts Zillow has listed (beds/baths/sqft errors matter)

3. Compare to recent sold homes, not just active listings

4. Use price per square foot carefully (style and finish matter a lot here)

5. Pressure-test the Zestimate with a local CMA before you price your home

Bottom line: Is Zillow accurate in North Dakota?

Sometimes. But in Bismarck and Mandan, Zillow is best used as a starting point, not the deciding factor—especially because the platform’s business model is built around engagement and lead generation. Zillow

If you want a realistic home value range—based on Bismarck/Mandan comps, current inventory, specials, condition, and buyer behavior—I’m happy to put together a CMA and walk through it with you.

By Rebecca Sabot, Real Estate Agent
© 2025 Rebecca Sabot. All rights reserved.