By Rebecca Sabot, Real Estate Agent
© Rebecca Sabot

If you have been waiting for some giant dramatic crash in home prices this year, most experts are not on board with that storyline.

The bigger theme for 2026 is moderation, not meltdown. National forecasts generally point to either flat-to-modest appreciation or slower price growth, depending on the source. Fannie Mae’s March 2026 forecast shows home prices rising about 2.4% this year, while the latest Fannie Mae Home Price Expectations Survey put the 2026 expectation closer to 2.1%. NAR has said prices are forecast to rise about 4% in 2026, while MBA’s January 2026 forecast showed the FHFA purchase-only index gaining about 0.6% for the year. That is a pretty big clue right there: the national market is still expected to hold up, but not every market will behave the same way.

So what does that mean in plain English?

It means many experts still expect prices to stay stable or move up modestly this year, but at a much calmer pace than during the ultra-competitive pandemic years. It also means some markets may still appreciate, some may flatten, and some may soften. Cotality’s April 2026 update showed national year-over-year home price growth had slowed to just 0.5% in February 2026, with 13 states already recording negative annual appreciation. In other words, real estate is being very real estate right now: local.

Why prices are not expected to fall hard everywhere

The main reason is still supply.

Even though inventory has improved in many places, the U.S. is still dealing with a structural housing shortage. NAR’s economists have continued to point to that supply gap as a major reason prices have held up better than many people expected. As long as there are not enough homes for the number of people who want to buy them, prices tend to get support, even when affordability is strained.

There is also the mortgage-rate lock-in effect. A lot of owners still have rates far below today’s market rates, so many are not eager to sell unless they have to. Fewer sellers means fewer choices, and fewer choices helps keep prices from dropping fast in many areas. At the same time, mortgage rates are still high enough to limit what buyers can afford, which is one reason price growth has cooled. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey had the 30-year fixed averaging 6.37% as of April 9, 2026, while Fannie Mae’s March forecast projected the annual average closer to 5.8% for 2026 and MBA’s January forecast was around 6.1%.

What buyers should take from this

Buyers hoping prices will suddenly fall off a cliff may be waiting for a party that probably is not getting scheduled.

That does not mean buyers have no opportunity. It means the opportunity may come from less competition, more inventory, seller flexibility, price reductions on overpriced homes, or negotiation room on closing costs and repairs rather than from a massive across-the-board price collapse. NAR reported February 2026 existing-home inventory at 3.8 months, which is better than the ultra-tight conditions of recent years but still not what most people would call oversupplied.

For buyers in Bismarck and Mandan, this is where local strategy matters more than national headlines. A national forecast can tell you the direction of the weather. It cannot tell you whether the exact house you want is overpriced, underpriced, likely to get multiple offers, or likely to sit. That is neighborhood work, not cable-news work.

What sellers should take from this

Sellers should not assume prices will automatically soar just because inventory is still relatively limited.

This year looks more like a market that rewards realistic pricing, solid presentation, and a good launch strategy. Buyers are more payment-sensitive than they were a few years ago. When rates are still hovering around the 6% range, buyers feel every extra dollar. Homes that are priced right and show well can still do very well. Homes that come out overpriced may sit there getting stale while the seller wonders why the phone is quiet. Spoiler: the market noticed.

That is especially important if you are buying and selling at the same time. A lot of homeowners still have strong equity, but they also need a practical plan for how the numbers work in today’s rate environment. This is one of those years where optimism is nice, but math is better.

So, will home prices go up this year?

Most major forecasts say yes, at least nationally.

But they are generally talking about modest growth, not fireworks.

That is the key takeaway. The most likely national story for 2026 is not a huge crash and not a huge spike. It is a slower, more uneven market where some places keep rising, some flatten, and some give back a little ground. That is exactly why buyers and sellers in Bismarck-Mandan need local advice tied to current inventory, pricing, and competition in their actual price range.

If you are wondering what this means for your home value or your buying power here in Bismarck or Mandan, I can help you look at the local numbers and build a plan that makes sense for this market, not just the national headlines. As a full-time realtor, I spend a lot of time helping people sort out what the big national story really means for their specific move.

SUMMARY

What experts say will happen with home prices this year is actually pretty simple: most do not expect a major national drop. They expect modest price movement, continued local differences, and a market where mortgage rates and inventory still matter a lot. Buyers may get more breathing room. Sellers can still win, but pricing correctly matters more than ever.

If you want a clearer picture of what is happening in Bismarck-Mandan real estate, reach out and I’ll help you break down the local market in a way that is actually useful.